Impact of Internet Gambling

November 20, 2015 by Jonathan Giles | No Comments | Filed in Uncategorized

Recurrent losses can lead to frustration. Youngsters, unaware of the lengthy-term effects of this addiction, finish up losing a lot of power and cash on it, and may possibly develop health issues. Lack of central regulation gives rise to the spread of illegal practices and an unfair use of resources. They tend to risk large amounts and are unable to resist the temptation to do so.

Furthermore, unregulated m88 gambling gives network hackers with opportunities to gain uncomplicated access to the confidential data of internet users. These internet sites target youngsters, as it is less complicated to lure them with free gifts and discounts. They really feel the need to have to gamble with large amounts of income. Important resources that can rather be invested in constructive activities, are wasted in baits and bets.

Mostly, no government authority regulates on the internet gambling. This can lead to heavy economic losses, and even bankruptcy. Gambling is betting dollars and operating the danger of losing it. Increase in the quantity of on-line casinos, rise in the popularity of games like on-line poker and bingo, and a steady boost in the number of youngsters and teenagers finding addicted to it, does not paint a quite superior image of the future of World wide web use. Unregulated gambling practices may possibly result in unwarranted expenditure of income and sheer waste of time.

In the current years, there has been a tremendous rise in the number of youngsters and youngsters taking portion in Net gambling. The biggest disadvantage of World wide web gambling is the waste of useful time and funds of the person involved. World-wide-web gambling entails on-line fund transfers requiring the exchange of credit card information more than the Web. These with this disorder are usually preoccupied with the thoughts of gambling. Hackers can very easily access such user facts and breach data safety.. Surveys have revealed that kids and youngsters are the most affected and the easiest prey to provides.

Gambling that makes use of the World wide web is identified as World-wide-web gambling. Repeated failures can breed feelings of inferiority, and in intense instances, one particular may well even lose interest in living.

Pathological gambling disorder has symptoms equivalent to addiction. It describes a state wherein gambling-associated behavior of a person hampers his/her private and social life. It really is high time we understand the effect on the net gambling can have on us, and take measures towards curbing its recognition.

Excessive exposure to on the web gambling web-sites leads to addiction. Its rising reputation is stealing a lot of productive time of those addicted to it

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Arsenal, ManU and Portsmouth: How Clubs Manage Costs

September 12, 2015 by Jonathan Giles | No Comments | Filed in Uncategorized

Initially, a London property slump resulted in slow sales, but Arsenal was under no pressure.

The idea for supporters to fashion their own subtle protest, by wearing the green and gold colours of Newton Heath, the original United m88 club formed in 1878 by workers on the Lancashire and Yorkshire Railway, was suggested by one fan on a messageboard, under his posting name, chatmaster.

It’s not just good management on the pitch that counts in Premier League football. Yet all is still not well, pointing up another innate contradiction of the football business. The 60,000 seat Emirates stadium, comprising some of the most expensive tickets in the Premier League, was already paying dividends.

United has enjoyed enormous success since, winning the Premier League in 2007, 2008 and 2009, and the European Champions League in 2008.

UEFA Clamps Down on Fat-Cat Footballers

Five months later, in October 2008, the then FA chairman, Lord Triesman, publicly warned that English professional football’s debts, which he estimated at £3bn, carried “very tangible dangers” for clubs, and called for greater restraint, especially on players’ wages.

Run aground: Portsmouth scuppered by owner

Last Updated Jun 11, 2010 12:08 PM EDT

The contradictions at the heart of the Premier League, its relentless commercial growth allied to persistent concerns about its financial and moral health, have been played out most remarkably in the soaring stands of Old Trafford, home of Manchester United. Wenger is being forced to acknowledge that there’s a balance to be struck between the pure, idealised principles of sport and the mucky, financial market in traded football talent.

Gaydamak himself declared shortly after the FA Cup victory that he could no longer afford to throw his millions into the club, because he himself had been holed by the recession. Dubbed the Red Knights , the group has so far shied away from making a formal offer, because they and the Glazers cannot agree a sensible price for Manchester United.

Wayne Rooney, striker for Man Utd. The following year, when Harry Redknapp’s team won the FA Cup, the club lost £17m, and the administrators estimated that in the year to May 31 2009, the club lost £13m. Richard Scudamore, the league’s chief executive and top deal-broker, argued that the club’s collapse was due to “rank bad management” — but it was management which had been tolerated, even celebrated, when Portsmouth returned from Wembley with the FA Cup in May 2008.

The Glazers are adamant that they won’t sell the club, from which they see profits from the Premier League’s continually booming revenues. The north London club did have substantial debts, £265m, but they were taken on as an investment in the Emirates Stadium,to which the club moved in 2006. The club was, in fact, a textbook example of the way in which many clubs are run. Photo: Flickr

After Portsmouth’s £122.8m financial meltdown, the Premier League sought to argue it was a one-off, not symptomatic of wider problems in top-flight football nor an international embarrassment. Yet resentment at the debt-laden takeover has never been assuaged. It became a phenomenon. But Scudamore claimed the Premier League’s debts were sustainable.

In the red: Manchester United’s mounting debt

In the shell of the old Highbury Stadium, an icon of art deco style when its stands were built in the 1930s, Arsenal built apartments designed fo New Lads-made-good. It showed that despite a staggering £460m for which the club had become liable as a direct result of the takeover, United’s total debts had increased to £716m, because the capital had not been touched and the high interest on payment-in-kind loans had “rolled up.”

Portsmouth blew a hole in that assertion, but it is not an isolated case of bad stewardship. All Rights Reserved.

Whether or not the consortium eventually launches a bid for the club, its efforts add credibility to protests on the terraces, creating an uncommon solidarity between business bosses and fans.

So financially Arsenal embodies metropolitan wealth.

Going great guns: Arsenal’s Good Governance

The supporters were at once demonstrating against what they saw as the carpet-bagging of a great sporting institution by speculators from afar who’d not put in one cent of investment, and at the same time championing the original working class values of the club. This epic clash over the soul of a football club rumbles on.

Arsene Wenger, Arsenal Manager.

Among all the Premier League club accounts for 2008-09 — leaving aside the 14 clubs which made losses and the 15 which relied on owners’ subsidies — Arsenal stood proud, a model of financial governance. It was living beyond its means, paying players too much, because it had an owner, a Russian Israeli, Sacha Gaydamak, who was to pouring money into the club soak up the losses.

See Also:

The Premier League of Debt

In March a consortium of investors, including succesful directors of legal and media firms, was reported to have formed to raise enough money to buy back the club.

Football Lessons for Managers

In January, the Glazers issued a prospectus to refinance £500m of the debt, and the document renewed United fans’ outrage. The manager, Arsene Wenger, has become resistant to spending much of this surplus on signing new players, believing fervently that the young team he has nurtured for years will ultimately succeed with style.

In the year to May 31, 2007, Portsmouth’s overspending led to a loss of £23m. The club is currently owned by the Florida-based Glazer family, who bought United with £559m of borrowed money in May 2005, then loaded responsibility for paying the debts onto the club itself. Portsmouth is their cautionary tale: when Gaydamak pulled his money out, the club was launched on the fast track to the insolvency court..

In 2008-09 Arsenal turned over £316m, by far the highest ever by an English club, boosted by apartment sales, which are now generating a profit. Here are three examples of how clubs have been managed: with prudence, with high risk and with absolute abandon.

© 2010 CBS Interactive Inc.. Fifteen of the Premier League’s clubs, three-quarters, are supported financially by owners. Much of its £265m debt, which has been substantially reduced, is at a low, five percent fixed rate of interest. Millions in match-day returns and broadcasting rights are at stake and the level of speculation required to keep a top-flight club on its toes is as high as any other industry. Photo Flickr

Off the field, the books sing, yet on it, the players have failed in critical challenges, and the season ended with Cesc Fabregas, the club captain, reported to be wanting a move back home to Barcelona

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Things To Do In Liverpool, England

September 11, 2015 by Jonathan Giles | No Comments | Filed in Uncategorized

This was shown no more so than the support given from Everton and it;s fans following the Hillsborough Tragedy in which 96 Liverpool fans lost their lives at a match in 1989.

Then this is a city steeped in history, with stories, legends, heroes and villains that could never be imagined in a story. We have many different museums, including the Maritime Museum, World Museum Liverpool, Tate Liverpool and for those from across the Atlantic there is the very honest story of how Liverpool was an integral part of the slave trade at the International Slavery Museum.

. As Liverpool famous manager, Bill Shankley, once said ” Football m88 isn’t a matter of life and death, it’s much more important than that” and yet when the time needs it, the lovable people of this city show why Liverpool v Everton is known as the Friendly Derby. Both with a great history of victories, including Liverpool being crowned Champions of Europe 5 times, each has a stadium to be proud of complete with its own museum and guided tour to help you relive the moments that have turned the local people to treat and follow their team more like a religion. The new mecca for shopping enthusuiasts opened in 2008 as was simply called Liverpool 1, and is the largest open air shopping centre in the United Kingdom. When four young lads from Liverpool got together at a garden fete and formed a band called The Beatles, little did they know they would go on to become the world’s biggest band and continue a fine tradition of creating more British number 1 records from their city, than from any other city in the country. Liverpool 1 is also home to many hotels including The Hilton.

Liverpool Waterfront – A World Heritage Site

The Pool of Life

When planning any trip to England, you must make time to come to the North West coastal city of Liverpool. It boasts top names like, John Lewis and Debenhams, along with couture names such as Ted Baker and Karen Millen which adds top the top boutique found in Liverpool such as fashion conscious WAG’s favourite Cricket. Liverpool has throughout the years been a religious city and boasts not one but two cathedrals. A city with over 800 years of rich history, it has been developed over the last 15 years to become one of the biggest tourist destinations in the country with a whole wide range of things to see and do that will cater for just about any taste!!

Here is your guide to the things that you’ll find in our fair city and the reasons why millions of visitors each year have a special love for Liverpool, and its resident population known as Scousers, in their heart.

If History is your thing…

Twist and Shout!

You’ll Never Walk Alone

No trip to Liverpool is complete without taking some consideration to the locals passion for their two great football team Liverpool, and Everton. Today, the city pays tribute to the Fab Four, in the shape of statues, museums, tours, hotels and other iconic buildings from their past – including the Cavern – are all open for the public to visit and to imagine what it must have been like to have been present during the swinging 60′s when pop music was the new phenomenom.

Shop until you drop

Liverpool’s city centre shopping area was reopened after over £500m was spent on giving the whole area(170,000 square meters) a major facelift. Liverpool is widely acknowledged as the capital city of music and practically the birthplace of Pop music. Both with unique awe inspiring archtecture, from the traditional Anglican Cathedral to the circular Catholic Cathedral – affectionately known by Scousers as ‘Paddy’s Wig-Wam’

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Neymar out of Copa America after Brazil drop appeal

September 9, 2015 by Jonathan Giles | No Comments | Filed in Uncategorized

This is a decisive moment.

Colombia international Bacca’s mother says she wanted to “hit” Neymar after the game, adding: “If I’d have been in the stadium I would have taken off my high heel and hit Neymar; I know many women in the stadium would have joined me.”

“No matter where I am from this point on, I will always be with the team, cheering for the success of my teammates and knowing that I am on the sidelines but would kill to be playing.

“Good luck Brazil!!”

On Friday the Barcelona forward saw a provisional two-game suspension increased to four games m88 — and the remainder of the Copa America — but the Selecao will not follow up an initial decision to appeal the ban.

“There is no happiness. It is very hard to have trained for something and then have a situation that may have turned into an accidental injury or that would have made everything more difficult.

According to the referee Enrique Osses’ match report, Neymar insulted himafter kicking a ball at Colombian player Armero at the end of the game, saying: “You want to make yourself famous at my expense, you son of a b—h.”

ESPN FC’s Mark Donaldson reacts to the news that Brazil will not appeal Neymar’s 4-game suspension. My staying here could disrupt the concentration of my team.. “Sadly, that will not be possible. I know that my presence is the group is important, and so is the presence of all the rest of the players so now more than ever we must have all of our thoughts completely focused on the matches ahead of us.

Brazil managed to qualify for the quarterfinals of the tournament on Sunday by beating Venezuela 2-1 to set up a tie against Paraguay on June 27.

“I ask my teammates to forgive me. Being in this situation I am certain has been a learning experience in my career.

They CFB added that it hoped the Copa America disciplinary committee “applies the same rigour as CONMEBOL” and that the sanction applies for “all competitions” organised by the governing body.

Neymar’s actions at the end of Brazil’s defeat to Colombia sparked a melee between the two sets of players.

Neymar issued a statement via Instagram encouraging his teammates to focus without him and apologising for his mistakes.

Neymar, 23, was sent off at the conclusion of Wednesday’s defeat to Colombia for an attempted head-butt of Jeison Murillo that sparked a melee, during which Colombia striker Carlos Bacca was also shown red.

“Neymar is set to leave the Brazilian national football team headquarters this morning in Santiago de Chile”, the CBF said in an official statement.

Brazilian coach Dunga gave Neymar the freedom to decide to stay with the squad or leave Chile to start his summer holidays.

“I had Faith and was hoping up until now that there was the possibility I would be able to play with the Selecao in Copa America,” the statement reads.

“I have never skirted the responsibility of being a leader of the group and as captain I have always dedicated myself to seek victory and make decisions, whether they are right or wrong.

Neymar will leave the team’s Copa America base on Monday morning and miss the rest of the tournament after it was decided against appealing his four-game suspension, the Brazilian Football Federation (CBF) has confirmed.

“I wanted to say what I felt to the group and to the coaching staff, who have always supported me

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Are Barcelona The Best Team Ever?

September 9, 2015 by Jonathan Giles | No Comments | Filed in Uncategorized

The best player in the world at only 24 years old, only Cristiano Ronaldo comes close. At rightback Dani Alves is probably the best attacking full back in the world, but at times can be frail defensively.

Alexis Sanchez is a very fast winger who can both cross and shoot, and after being the best player in Serie A in 2010-11 he earned himself a move to Barcelona. His burst of pace to take him past defenders is a key part of his game.

Pique and Puyol have formed a solid partneship in the centre of the Barca defence. Their normal line up is this:

………………Valdes

Without a doubt the best midfield in the world.

Xavi’s passing and control of the m88 game is second to none, he consistently has a pass accuracy of 90%+, while Iniesta’s is similar and he also contributes more in goalscoring. Puyol is a big thread from corners.

Abidal is a fairly solid left back, although one problem could be his pace. He is very agile around his area and has great shot-stopping reflexes.In the 2011-12 season, he went 896 minutes without conceding a goal, a new record for La Liga.

However Mascherano and Fabregas are possible starters in midfield, and Pedro on the left wing is available and good enough to come in.

Midfield

Abidal….Pique….Puyol….Alves

…….Iniesta…Busquets..Xavi

And last, of course, we have Lionel Messi. Only 5ft 7in tall but his goalscoring record speaks for itself: 170 goals in just over 200 games, and he is Barcelona’s all-time top goalscorer.

Defence

Busquets is slowly becoming a very good defensive midfielder, with a style of play based around positioning and interceptions rather than crunching tackles and physicality. Fabregas is a ready-made replacement for Xavi and is more than competent filling in anywhere in midfield or even in more attacking positions. He only has 11 caps at the age of 30.

Forwards

……Villa…..Messi….Sanchez. David Villa is one of the best out and out strikers in the world, however at Barcelona he finds himself pushed out to the left to accomodate Messi, although he is still very effective in that position.

Goalkeeper

Valdes is one of the best goalkeepers in the world, Casillas is undoubtedly the best, but there is arguments for Valdes, along with Manuel Neuer, Jose Reina and Petr Cech for second place.

Unfortunately for Valdes, he is firmly stuck in second place for the Spain national team. Both are know to get forward and contribute to goals , and Pique especially is very good with the ball at his feet.

There’s no doubt that Barcelona have an amazing team

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May the odds be ever in your favor

June 7, 2015 by Jonathan Giles | No Comments | Filed in Uncategorized

If only there were someone who was willing to demystify the polling, tell us who to trust and who to dismiss–and, well, just tell us who’s going to win.

In his book The Victory Lab: The Secret Science of Winning Campaigns, Sasha Issenberg writes that campaigns have been doing this for years, using data to calculate how likely a person is to vote or canvas for a candidate given past behavior. Crowd-sourced wisdom didn’t need formalized data–just gut feel.

On May 20, 2011, John Delaney awoke 550 meters from the summit of Mount Everest. One is democratic, the other technocratic. At 4:30 a.m., 100 meters from the summit of Everest, the guides pronounced Delaney dead. His model predicted Barack Obama would win by 17 points in North Carolina and lose by 2 points in Indiana; pundits predicted that he’d win Carolina by about 7 and lose Indiana by about 4. Cerebral and pulmonary edemas–the leaking of fluid to the brain and heart–are increasingly likely at that altitude. For a few cycles, sites like Pollster.com and RealClearPolitics averaged the glut of polls to present a reliable snapshot of the race. We speak for them,” Silver writes in his book. Opened in 2001 as an online sports-betting market, the company quickly transitioned to politics when Delaney saw demand for its prop political bets. By August, the number of political m88 bets had surpassed its 2008 peak by 2.2 million. A guide came down from the summit and, with the help of sherpas, began to escort him back down the mountain. The free flow of probability in the wild can be senseless and terrifying–look at Intrade’s volatility after a big news day, or Delaney’s tragic fate.

The details of Silver’s models are crucial, but most readers can’t be bothered with them. Still, even Sam Wang, a Princeton neuroscientist and political modeler who Silver describes as “one of my most frequent critics,” says Silver’s quantified analysis “is missing from most political commentary, which is statistically not sophisticated. The mass media needs more people like him.”

Blumenthal is concerned that Silver is mixing punditry with his polls, and that readers aren’t savvy enough to see it that way. Treating politicians like stocks, Intrade’s website offers markets for people to invest in their conviction that Mitt Romney would win the 2012 Republican presidential nomination. If Obama’s stock is trading at 60 out of 100, say, that’s not an ironclad decree about who’s going to win. “There is less ambiguity,” he says about the campaign efforts, “than there is in predicting something that’s going to happen.”

——————-

***

Silver’s list of simple things includes aggregating every poll that’s released, weighting them according to their trustworthiness (defined by past performance), combining those polls with various indicators–economic statistics, a candidate’s incumbency, the state’s demographics–and using it all to calculate who’s going to win the presidency. By the time Gallup polls established themselves in the late 1930s, electoral bets were out of the papers. After the North Carolina experiment, he started to blend economic and demographic indicators with polls to create a new type of prediction model.

In the wake of John Delaney’s death, Intrade has no icon to rival Silver. Silver became an oracle.

Delaney left behind his wife, three kids, and a company that has changed the way political junkies obsess about elections. And yet their success springs from the same well: a human desire to forecast the unknown, and a modern desire to do it with data. To him, these markets are a practical use of economic principle. You never knew if somebody had access to a poll you didn’t, so why take the chance?

That doesn’t mean Rothschild thinks one is definitively better than the other. But when the voters turn out, they’re not predicting anything, they’re deciding–until next season, when the forecasters start their climbs anew.

***

As Intrade came into its own in 2008, a geek emerged from the cornfields of baseball statistics to offer an alternative method of predicting the future. But then he started his own site, fivethirtyeight.com, and outed himself. As he said, simple.

These markets were proto-Intrades. According to forecasts, the temperature was -7 degrees Fahrenheit, and winds blew as fast as 40 miles an hour.

To read more pieces like this in Tomorrow Magazine, a new magazine from the former editors of GOOD Magazine, you can buy the first issue here.

Since then, his method has evolved. The market on the Missouri Senate race between Claire McCaskill and Todd Akin, for example, was woefully inactive until Akin made his “legitimate rape” comment. American political observers were building betting pools as early as the Lincoln Administration, according to economists Paul Rohde and Koleman Strumpf. Intrade, founded as a small, unassuming betting market in Dublin, became part of a new trend in American politics. In the first nine months of 2012, more than $124 million was traded on Intrade’s political markets. He won Carolina by 14 and lost Indiana by 2. His predictions, though didn’t rely on the wisdom of crowds, but on calculations. If an upstanding American wanted to wager on whom Mitt Romney would choose as his vice president in July, he’d need to find a workaround, often by using a wire transfer to a foreign financial institution. “Even rocket science is trying to coordinate a bunch of relatively simple things,” he told me.

But Delaney was too far from Orla and too close to the summit to be notified. “The numbers have no way of speaking for themselves. “It is when we deny our role in the process that the odds of failure rise.”

***

Intrade wasn’t the first to offer a political prediction market, but it was the savviest. Amazingly, they were right–sometimes even better than the polls they were based on. By 2010, meanwhile, editors at The New York Times were so impressed with Silver they hired him to bolster the paper’s election coverage; Silver also signed a book contract with a reported $700,000 advance. The odds that Delaney would succumb to the mountain were low.

Silver and Intrade are vastly different touchstones in our new predictive era. Nevertheless, Blumenthal says with a resigned laugh, “it’s certainly sophisticated. Silver wanted to do more. Drowning in information, in data, in input. They wouldn’t reemerge with any popularity until the 21st century.

Each of the eight climbers in the group had their own sherpa and oxygen supply. It’s certainly complex.”

But both share a weakness: their trust in polls. Nevertheless, three-quarters of new accounts originate from the U.S.

Silver doesn’t think what he does for a living is complex, which is why he compares it to rocket science. Barry Ritholtz, a financial writer, has been on a crusade against the platform for years because of its willingness to let people predict things they have no ability to predict. She named her Hope.

David Rothschild, an economist who specializes in data-based forecasting, compared Intrade and Silver’s performances in 2008 and found Intrade was just as good, if not slightly better, than Silver in close races. “People out there email that the best poll out there is Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight, but it’s not a poll,” he told me. The web lets us all access the same public opinion polls, subscribe to the same breaking news Twitter accounts, and see the same GIFs of Barack Obama slow-jamming the news. Uncertainty is literally blamed for our economic problems. Silver, remember, decides what goes in his model and what stays out. The upsets aren’t jarring, they’re just black swans, unlikely events come to fruition. Intrade and Silver rely on the same set of public-opinion surveys to give a snapshot of today’s opinions. By the 1890s, Wall Street supervised the betting, and newspapers reported the latest odds in the next edition. After it was purchased by Baseball Prospectus, a clearinghouse for baseball stats, he quit his job to play online poker, at one point netting $400,000.

Jackman has a theory about the undulating rise and fall of political betting markets: People only bet their money when they think they have a chance of winning. Amid all this, we look for signs–data–that can help us predict what might happen. Together, they’re a buddy-cop squad from the future.

“I don’t want to make it sound like I think Silver’s evil, though with a couple of beers I probably could,” he told me, admitting that as a competitor, he might be biased.

“We face danger whenever information growth outpaces our understanding of how to process it,” Silver writes in his book. He was anonymous at first, one of the masses in the scrum at liberal blog DailyKos, username: poblano. At 1:45 a.m., 50 meters from the summit, Delaney began to struggle. politics, even though U.S. One hundred years before Nate Silver, the Times was reporting on election odds.

If the Silvers and Intrades of the past faded, why have they reemerged, and why do they feel so new? By World War II, betting markets had all but disappeared. There’s enough noise for all of us to sort through and find our own signal. Intrade can be an invaluable snapshot of rapid reaction to breaking news, while Silver performs the kinds of calculations no Intrade investor has the time, skills, or assets to do and presents them in a way that people can easily understand. It had competition–Iowa Electronic Markets and BetFair, among others–but by opening itself up to the media and researchers, it became for political betting markets what Kleenex is to facial tissue. “The HTML around them have changed, but the underlying economics haven’t.” Likewise, Silver’s models aren’t novel. They’ve been hiding in academia for decades. That comes with the territory, really–the model can’t make itself. That’s one reason, perhaps, we’re so focused on trying to understand the results in advance. Pollsters, though, are increasingly threatened by budget cuts and the high cost of cellphone polling.* If the accuracy of their surveys is weak, then the machines’ final product will be, too. The result? Quantified public perception of the race–”conventional wisdom, plus” as one academic told me.

The nation’s prospects seem far more uncertain than John Delaney’s Everest climb: Unemployment and student debt, a never-ending culture clash at home and abroad, climate change. All of Silver’s extras, Blumenthal argues, don’t do much more than Pollster.com’s average because the base of Silver’s model are the same polls. (Silver told me he wishes he could provide complete methodologies, he just doesn’t have the time.) For the mainstream reader, Silver’s final probability score is all that’s remembered–it doesn’t matter what it’s made of. But, Wolfers argues, prediction markets are probability markets. No matter how democratic information becomes, experts like Silver are still in demand to synthesize it for the masses. Everest deaths were not unheard of–the statistics are publicly available. In the gaping maw of a nonstop news cycle, we’re finding more and more data (I’m using that term loosely) to fill the void.

Only on rare occasions, like Election Day, do we allow the voice of the many to crowd out the oracular few. Adjusted for inflation, tens of millions of dollars were invested, topping out at an absurd $211 million (in today’s dollars) for the down-to-the-wire Wilson-Hughes race of 1916. His company invited users to bet on the news: Customers would calculate probabilities, assess risk, make a wager. It proved irresistible to political journalists, for whom the horse race is stock-in-trade.

Silver graduated from the University of Chicago with a degree in economics in 2000, then whiled away a few years as an economic consultant for an accounting firm. But it was just that–a snapshot. The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail–But Some Don’t came out in late September.

Political prediction is a renaissance, not a revolution. And sometimes, there simply aren’t enough traders to produce a full picture of events. There are buyers, there are sellers, and their exchanges tell us about the world, no matter the era in which the action is taking place. “I live in fear but also the recognition that one year we’re going to have the polls way off,” Silver says. When you’re betting on information, you want to make sure you have just as much as everybody else. It should have read that pollsters budgets are being cut.

Editor’s note: This piece was originally written for Tomorrow Magazine, whose first issue comes out this month. “Prediction markets were extremely accurate 100 years ago,” Wolfers says. On Everest, Delaney was doing much the same.

This close to the summit, he was on an area of the mountain known as the death zone, where the atmosphere is about three times thinner than at sea level. In 2004, 2 million political shares were traded; in 2008, 8 million; with two months to go in the 2012 presidential election, there were 12 million.

Now markets are once again open for all “because we’re drowning,” Jackman says. Bored, he surreptitiously created a spreadsheet that forecast baseball players’ futures based on statistical measurements of similar players. Still, between 1921 and 2006, just 94 people died at this stage of the climb–above 8,000 meters, but before the summit. At 7:30 p.m., he set out from camp, 8,300 meters above sea level. “Nate’s doing a few things that are clever, many of which were in political science literature, all of which make sense,” says political scientist Simon Jackman, who developed prediction models while Silver was still in college.

The problem is that Intrade markets can sometimes be, well, totally useless. “The traders as a group have no correlation to the decision-makers,” he wrote on his blog after Intrade confidently forecast that the Supreme Court would rule Obamacare’s individual mandate unconstitutional. What might happen politically matters more than nearly anything else.

Mark Blumenthal, the founding editor of Pollster.com, was, in many ways, the Silver of 2004, a guy who came out of nowhere to help the general public better understand the quantitative side of politics. It’s just four people in a Dublin office, managing a system that draws more than 2,000 trades a day. It needs a creator. Moreover, the markets were quite predictive. Silver had proved his bona fides.

***

Justin Wolfers is an economist at the University of Pennsylvania whose outspoken support of prediction markets has made him the public face of the field. It hasn’t stopped growing since it transitioned to news bets. Once scientific polling began, information became undemocratic. Pundits cite Intrade market prices to prove their points, even if the market they cite is hopelessly flawed. The man who made his living taking bets had succumbed to his own.

Silver created models that predicted the winners of the 2008 campaign, just like Intrade. He would never know Hope.

Back in Ireland, three days earlier, his wife, Orla, had given birth to a premature baby, though only 6 percent of babies born in Ireland are premature. “The capacity of the betting markets to aggregate information is all the more remarkable given the absence of scientific polls,” Rohde and Strumpf write. The Delaneys knew that something could go wrong; they just assumed that it wouldn’t. The article is being republished with permission.

He first caught the attention of political junkies when, still anonymous on DailyKos, he predicted the results of the 2008 Democratic primaries not by interpreting polls, but demographics and past votes. Intrade is also afflicted by a longshot bias, a phenomenon common to all markets in which bettors overvalue the chances of a dark horse. All that means is that sometimes, Intrade makes the wrong forecast.

“John and I were both very much aware of the risks involved,” Orla said at his funeral. Tragically, they made the wrong prediction. Obama’s 60 percent stock really means he’s going to win the election 60 times out of 100.

Intrade’s most-trafficked markets, by far, are the ones about U.S. He wanted to take pictures of the future. In the early 20th century, betting markets were “democratic because there wasn’t much [information],” he says. Delaney, who founded Intrade, a website for those who love to predict the future, had been trying to get to the top of the world for years. At some point a future president is going to channel Harry Truman, gleefully holding up an iPad with FiveThirtyEight’s mistaken forecast on display.

Four years later, Intrade and Silver are further entrenched in the national political conversation. But now he’s concerned about where Silver has sent the discipline.

“Every time something happens where an underdog wins I get calls from six journalists saying Intrade said it wouldn’t happen,” says Wolfers, the economist with the prediction penchant. It’s a probability, just like Silver’s calculations. “In presidential races in 1896, 1900, 1904, 1916, and 1924, The New York Times, Sun, and World provided nearly daily quotes from early October until Election Day,” Rohde and Strumpf write. Spooked by the potential for people to rig the election with their bets, New York’s state government cracked down on electoral gambling. Altogether, Everest claimed 192 climbers’ lives in that 86-year span, 1.3 percent of those who attempted a climb. They aren’t trying to divine the future, they’re trying to connect the dots. “It doesn’t make any sense to be a partisan of one set of data or another,” he told me over a beer in Manhattan. Good thing we’re overflowing with it.

***

CORRECTION: Because of an editing error, this piece originally referred to Pollster.com’s budget being cut. His name was Nate Silver, and he was ready to do for politics what statistician Bill James had done for baseball: Make statistics a force to be reckoned with.

Nevertheless, Issenberg reports that the Obama campaign reached out to Silver in 2008 for “a little external validation that what we were seeing is what was actually going on,” as one adviser put it. In the presidential race, Intrade’s predictions were regularly more accurate than Silver’s weeks earlier in the cycle.

***

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Soccer Statistics – Past Results, Match Fixtures, Head-to-Head (H2H), Odds Comparison, Team Form

May 16, 2015 by Jonathan Giles | No Comments | Filed in Uncategorized

Bet using your brain and not your heart!

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Types of Poker Games

May 1, 2015 by Jonathan Giles | No Comments | Filed in Uncategorized

The number of cards can be varied. In case a player remains ‘in the hand’ due to the fact that others have folded, he is declared the winner by default.

This is a fair warning. Always keep cool. In these games, each player’s incomplete hidden hand is combined with the shared face-up cards. Once you are sure, learn something about the types of poker games and how these are played with this article.

In this game, players are dealt a complete hand, then the cards are hidden, and the https://www.fun88no1.com players strive to improve the hand by replacing their cards. ~ William J Florence

Poker is perhaps one of the most popular types of card games and involves more skill than people think. However, the seven-card stud and five-card stud are the most popular ones.

There are two international level poker events. There is no sympathy in poker. It is the simplicity of this game that might be one of the reasons for its immense popularity.

Omaha hold ‘em: Omaha is similar to Texas hold ‘em where every player is dealt four cards and must make his best hand using exactly two of them and using exactly three of the five community cards. And yes, don’t forget to practice your poker face!

Texas Hold ‘em: This game is very popular in casinos and poker card rooms across North America and Europe. The original game involves players betting on the card combinations in their possession – often called the hand. However unlike the world series of Poker, which includes multiple variants of Poker, this event is a collection of Texas hold ‘em poker tournaments held internationally.

Be it a grand casino in Las Vegas, or your online casino website – you can indulge in a game of poker wherever you want. Unless you are completely sure of handling yourself once you understand this fun88 game, you are at your own risk. Although the real fun of playing this game lies in the hustle and bustle of jam-packed casinosl. The bets of all the players are collected in a central pot, and the one who holds the hand with the highest value wins. In this game, each player receives a blend of face-up cards and face-down cards in multiple betting rounds. The popularity of this game can be gauged considering the fact that there exists a world series of poker and the world poker tour. This variation allows the players the scope to indulge in some strategic analysis as well. Although the original game is called ‘Omaha High’, a different version called ‘Omaha hi-lo’ also exists.

Stud Poker

The strong point in poker is never to lose your temper, either with those you are playing with or, more particularly, with the cards. The winner is awarded a bracelet and the highlight of the event remains to be the $10,000 no-limit hold ‘em with the winner receiving a grand multi-million dollar prize. The game is named according to the number of cards drawn, for example if five cards are dealt, it is called Five Card Draw.

These variants are also quite popular. For people who are not quite familiar with the game, it can be a great idea to play some online poker, or some basic poker at home with friends and family before trying it out in the casino. This month-long event, held annually in Las Vegas is the largest set of poker tournaments in the world. Poker has controlled minds, decisions, thoughts, and lives of many. If you lose your head you will lose all your chips. In this game, each player only starts with two cards and the remaining cards are shared. The World Series of Poker is perhaps one of the biggest Poker events. Although there exist various types of variants, the most common and popular ones remain to be Texas hold ‘em and Omaha hold ‘em.

Community Card Poker

There are various types of poker games and most of the variants have attained considerable popularity.

Draw Poker. And then there is another huge poker event called the World Poker Tour

Online Gambling: A Growing Addiction

May 1, 2015 by Jonathan Giles | No Comments | Filed in Uncategorized

He credits a 12-step program to helping him overcome his problem, and he has not gambled in almost four years.

“I think it’s a devastating illness, it’s an illness that if it’s not treated, it will end up that the person’s whole lifestyle will be affected,” said Ed Looney, executive director of Council on Compulsive Gambling of New Jersey.

If you or your loved ones has a gambling problem, help can be found at the National Council on Problem Gambling.

The problem is affecting younger people as well. That will always be there. Drawn in by the popularity of poker, half of all men in college are gambling on an monthly basis — even though betting on sports is illegal everywhere in the U.S. By some estimates, $7 billion is wagered on the Super Bowl alone in casinos, online and with bookies.

“Sports betting is the rock of Gibraltar,” Looney said. “But I thought this must be what I have to do. These are things that I avoided my whole life, not choosing to be a part of, but today I cherish them.”. “I’ve heard other people compare it to a cocaine addiction, the high you get from that, and that’s the euphoria I felt,” he said. He considered going to Mexico and if he couldn’t kill himself there, he’d pay someone else to do it, he said.

It is now high season for sports betting. The lining up the money, the handicapping of the game, the betting of the game, the watching of the game. “It’s American, like apple pie. except Nevada.

‘A Devastating Illness’

Erickson is a compulsive gambler, a condition just as dangerous and debilitating as drug or alcohol addiction. People love to bet on their football games.”

“Life is great,” Erickson said. There are an estimated 6 million people who deal with the problem in the United States. Win or lose, it didn’t matter to me, it just set me up to bet again.”

The situation became so dire, that Erickson contemplated killing himself. The sharing of experiences with friends, family, like I’ve never seen before. As gambling on the Internet becomes more popular and more sites crop up, those numbers are expected to increase.

Mark Erickson always craved a piece of the action — so the accountant from Phoenix started betting on m88 sports over the Internet.

But soon, it spiraled out of control.

Three and a half years ago, Erickson accrued $400,000 in gambling debts. The college bowl games this weekend lead to the NFL playoffs and the Super Bowl. “The miracles I’ve experienced. And when they caught on, he left his family and fled.

“I became this person I didn’t know,” he said. I got to get myself out of it.

Nevertheless, the industry rakes in mind-boggling amounts of cash. “It becomes an all-consuming activity. Desperate, he began stealing from his clients. I got myself into this. He served a year in prison and now works for a http://www.thai-m88.com compulsive gambling helpline. Then, it’s March Madness, where many participate in an office betting pool.

After 23 days on the run, Erickson turned himself in. People love to bet on it

PGA golf betting odds for players to win the 2016 Dean & DeLuca Invitational

May 30, 2016 by Jonathan Giles | No Comments | Filed in Uncategorized

Players like Phil Mickelson, Lee Trevino and Zach Johnson are tied for the second most wins with two each.

Jason Dufner has a win in 2016 and he’s finished second in this tournament twice in the past (2012, 2014). Patrick Reed has finished alone in 2nd place three times this season but has not won a tournament since January of 2015. Louis Oosthuizen’s lone PGA win remains the 2010 British Open and he missed the cut last week.

Other than a 5th place finish at the Arnold Palmer in March, Zach Johnson has not played well enough to win in 2016. On top of that, Bohn suffered a heart attack during the Honda Classic back in February. Danny Lee has one win on tour and he finished tied for 18th last week. While the meltdown is not a good sign, Jordan Spieth did miss the cut the week before at the Players in his first start since the Masters so he is rounding into form and he did tie for 2nd place in this tournament last year.

5. He’s a big threat this week to win.

Since winning the Texas Open for his 4th PGA Tour win on April 21st, Charley Hoffman finished 11th at the Zurich Classic, missed the cut at the Players and finished tied for 12th last week at the Byron Nelson. Charl Schwartzel tied for 58th place last week but that was his first tournament since he missed the cut at the Masters. Brandt Snedeker has missed the cut in his last two starts and in three of his last four tournaments but he did tie for 2nd place here last year just one stroke off the lead.. That was the last of his three PGA Tour wins.

Colt Knost is 30 and he’s yet to win on tour but he tied for 3rd at the Players and was 4th last week in his last two starts. After missing the cut in his two previous starts, Jimmy Walker tied for 24th last week. But Jason Bohn did finish tied for 2nd in this tournament last year just one stroke off the lead.

Kevin Na has one career win in 314 starts. Toms has 13 career PGA Tour wins including a major but he’s not won a tournament since 2011.

Chris Kirk is the defending champion in this tournament but that was the last of his four PGA Tour wins. Colt Knost, Tony Finau, Marc Leishman, Kevin Kisner, Patton Kizzire – 50 to 1 odds each

T-7. Then a few notable golfers with much higher odds are listed along with comments why.

Boo Weekley won this tournament in 2013. Chappell also finished alone in 2nd place at the RSM Classic and the Arnold Palmer this season so he’s been close to winning but he’s still a maiden on tour.

Boo Weekley – 80 to 1 odds

The 2016 Dean & DeLuca golf tournament on the PGA Tour is taking place this week from May 26-29, 2016, at the Colonial Country Club located in Fort Worth, Texas. Adam Scott has two wins in 2016 and 13 total wins on the PGA Tour. Chappell is lower odds here because he finished alone in 2nd place at the Players in his last start. Kevin Na, Louis Oosthuizen, Patrick Reed, Jim Furyk – 33 to 1 odds each

Jason Bohn – 100 to 1 odds

Bill Haas tied for 43rd place last week. Jordan Spieth was in position to win last week at the Byron Nelson playing with Brooks Koepka in the final pairing Sunday just two strokes back but Spieth shot a 74 and ended up tied for 18th place. Ryan Palmer missed the cut last week. Could he win again this year? Maybe, but who wants to bet on it?

Jason Bohn only has two career wins and his last win was in 2010 and he’s missed the cut in his last three PGA Tour starts. Ben Hogan holds the record for most wins in the tournament with five. Nuff said. Kevin Chappell – 28 to 1

Adam Scott finished tied for 12th at the Players two weeks ago in his last start. Jimmy Walker, Brandt Sendeker, Danny Lee, Jason Dufner – 40 to 1 odds each

Good luck to all the PGA golfers and especially the bettors this week at the 2016 Dean & DeLuca Invitational at Colonial in Fort Worth, Texas!

Notables

Matt Kuchar shot -14 under last week to finish alone in 3rd place at the Byron Nelson. He won the Puerto Rico Open for his first career win at the end of March.

T-13. Tony Finau tied for 12th last week. At age 32, Kevin Kisner has one career win and he missed the cut in his last two starts. He has three PGA Tour wins but his last win was in 2010.

David Toms won this tournament in 2011. Chris Kirk, Charl Schwartzel – 35 to 1 odds each

The Dean & DeLcua Invitational dates back to 1946. Matt Kuchar – 14 to 1

2. Here is a list of the betting odds for the PGA golfers to win the 2016 Dean & DeLuca Invitational.

T-11. Patton Kizzire is 30 and still looking for his first PGA Tour win.

4. Matt Kuchar has not won a PGA Tour event in over two years now and he should be higher odds to win this week.

Listed below are the betting odds and comments for each player who has odds of 50 to 1 or less to win this week. Bill Haas, Ryan Palmer – 45 to 1 odds each

1. He’s a mild threat here to get his 6th PGA win here. Charley Hoffman – 25 to 1

At age 29, Kevin Chappell is still looking for his first PGA Tour win. Adam Scott – 11 to 1

6. Marc Leishman has one career win in 188 starts. Haas has six PGA Tour wins and he was second at the Valspar in March so he’s a mild threat to win this week. Schwartzel won the Valspar Championship in March and he could play well this week.

3. Kirk missed the cut in his last start at the Players. Jordan Spieth – 6 to 1

At odds of 6 to 1, Jordan Spieth is the betting favorite this week to win the 2016 Dean & DeLuca Invitational. Scott won this tournament in 2014 beating Jason Dufner in a playoff. Zach Johnson – 22 to 1

T-19. Jim Furyk has one win on tour since 2010 and he’s making just his third start back after wrist surgery. Don’t be fooled, though, as Kuchar also finished 3rd at the Players but that is not winning. In his last four tournaments he’s failed to crack the top 25 and he finished last week tied for 66th. Zach Johnson does have two wins in this tournament (2010, 2012).

T-17

Horse Racing Systems: 5 That Work

May 29, 2016 by Jonathan Giles | No Comments | Filed in Uncategorized

This is another mistake that bettors make: in a race with a clear standout, many people give up on the win pool and bet their choice to place, thinking that they’ll get paid even if the favorite wins.

Instead of blindly betting all horses breaking from the inside, you might use this to supplement your handicapping, paying particular attention to the inside horse, and betting it when you like the horse on other handicapping grounds. The horse with the best combination of the two is the play.

Horse Racing System #1 – In maiden races, bet the horse with the best last race speed figure that has had at least two career starts. I’ve identified some of the most useful handicapping factors that have a proven history of doing much better than the track takeout and put them together with some simple rules that should make your trips to the racetrack more fun and profitable. My own studies have shown a similar advantage for the inside post in routes.

Horse Racing System #5 – Bet Horses breaking from the inside post in route races. One of the few anomalies turned up by Michael Nunamaker in his pioneering computer study “Modern Impact Values”, published in 1994, was that horses breaking from the inside post position in route races won more than their fair share of races, and were under-bet by the public. Most people who love horse racing would be thrilled just to win a little more and lose a little less on their trips to the track.

In fact, pedigree does not generally offer wager value with one curious exception: well bred horses do surprisingly well in maiden claiming races. With the BRIS pp’s you can use the Sire Production Factor in concert with the pedigree rating. I was able to replicate this result in my own study of nearly 100,000 races conducted a decade later.

For instance, many speed figure handicappers reported making horse racing profits in the 60′s and 70′s simply by betting horses with the best last race speed figure. To the extent that most handicappers use pedigree at all, it’s usually to identify horses that may improve when switched to the turf, or those who may be expected to win as first time starters. This system takes advantage of one of the few glaring inefficiencies in the parimutuel pools, namely that first and second time starters are badly over-bet.

Horse Racing System #2 – Bet horses that have an excuse for a poor performance in their last race. The inside post in turf routes actually showed a small profit, but this was based on a small sample size and cannot be relied upon.

How do we identify the best pedigree, then? If you’re using the DRF past performances, use the stud fee as a proxy for quality, and the Tomlinson figure to judge suitability for the distance and surface. In most case the public seems to take a horse’s last running line at face value. Because speed figures have gained in popularity over the years, anyone following that system now would have trouble coming up with gas money for the ride home from the track.

In the first place, the parimutuel takeout in horse racing is large (over 15%) and the mutuel pools are relatively efficient, so that even systems with a strong basis in reality can’t overcome the size of the takeout.

First time starters return only about 60 cents on the dollar, and second time starters are only a little better, returning less than 70 cents on the dollar. If the tote board suggests that the public is overlooking these mitigating circumstances, make your play.. It must follow, therefore, that if we bet the best horse that has started at least twice, we stand an excellent chance of beating the takeout, particularly in races that have several first and second time starters.

Look for comment lines like “bled”, “lost rider”, “clipped heels”, “stumbled”, “steadied”, “between horses”, “rank”, and “jumped shadows” that suggest that a horse’s last race was not indicative of its true ability. It should go without saying that you should actually like the favorite’s chances after evaluating the race with your own handicapping.

The horse with the best last race speed figure (whether Beyer, BRIS, or Equibase) may not be the best horse in the race, but he’s probably not far off, so we can use that as a proxy for selection purposes.

Horse Racing System #3 – In maiden claiming races, bet the horse with the best pedigree. Thanks for reading, and see you in the winner’s circle.

Looking for a dead simple horse racing system that will allow you to quit your job and make a living betting the horses in just 10 minutes a day? Good luck with that!

Horse Racing System #4 – Bet low-priced favorites to place. None of them work.

However, just because systems won’t make you rich doesn’t mean there’s no place for them at all in a horseplayer’s arsenal. Few bother to even look at the comment line for the race, let alone take the trouble to seek out and watch the replay of the race. Just don’t expect to quit your day job.

For as long as humans have bet on horse racing there have been system sellers trying to con the gullible into parting with their hard earned money with the lure of easy profits to be made on the sport of kings. The inside post combined with early speed is a particularly potent combination, since the horse will not have to exert himself as much to gain his preferred position at the front of the pack.

This causes the favorite to be under bet in the place pool, leading to a profit opportunity for us to take advantage of by betting the favorite to place. This offers opportunity to more diligent players.

In that spirit. My study suggests that’s not the case.

None of these systems will make you rich, or even guarantee that you will make a profit. They will, however increase the chances of a profitable day at the races by ensuring that your wager dollars go where they have the best chance of success. My computer studies of pedigree, based on nearly 100,000 races, suggest that using pedigree in that manner offers no advantage to the player.

Second, the very nature of the parimutuel system itself means that any profits to be made from following a particular set of rules will quickly be arbitraged away as the followers of that system drive down the odds of horses chosen by the system.

Nunamaker reported that the inside post in dirt route races won at a 20% greater than expected rate, and lost only 10 cents on the dollar, much better than the track take. This is somewhat counter-intuitive since you’d expect that horses with good pedigrees that end up in the maiden claiming ranks probably can’t run at all. Let me let you in on a little secret about these “magic formulas”

Biggest Gambling Countries In The World

May 29, 2016 by Jonathan Giles | No Comments | Filed in Uncategorized

In this country, gaming companies bet people on whether the central bank’s interest will increase or not. Otherwise, Australia is the only country that allows online bets on sports but prevents gamblers from using the Internet to place bets during live games.

Top Online Gambling Mistakes

Singapore

Gaming Losses Per Adult: $1,288

Las Vegas is well-known as the gambling industry of the world; however, American people are not the biggest gamblers on Earth. Most profits go to education, arts and culture.

Gaming Losses Per Adult: $568

Gaming Losses Per Adult: $1,174

The most favorite gambling activity in Italy is electronic gaming machine. According to business advisory firm MAG Consulenti Associati, the electronic gaming makes up half of Italy’s total gaming revenues in first half of 2011.

Australia: Biggest Gambling Country in the World

The potash-rich province of Saskatchewan is home to the biggest gamblers in Canada. Although the government has imposed an entry fee of S$100 ($80.50) for citizens entering the casino, the country’s gaming revenue is expected to hit $6.4 billion in 2011 and outpace Las Vegas.

Gaming Losses Per Adult: $553

Gaming Losses Per Adult: $553

Gaming Losses Per Adult: $568. Reportedly, over 75 percent of adult Canadians took part in the games last year in which the most popular games are lotteries and Scratch and Win cards.

Gaming Losses Per Adult: $1,174

Era of Online Gambling

Australia is the craziest country when it comes to gaming and gambling. H2 Gambling Capital has released the list of biggest gambling countries due to average gaming losses.

Gambling’s Famous Icons

Gaming Losses Per Adult: $517

Australia

Finland

Italy

Gaming Losses Per Adult: $517

Canada

Singapore offered the very first casino some years ago which then became the world’s third largest-gaming center after Macau and Las Vegas. Furthermore, the slot machines named pokies are the most favorite game in Australia with an estimated number of 75-80 percent of problem gamblers.

Gaming Losses Per Adult: $1,288

Related links:

Interestingly enough, the country’s national lottery company, Veikkaus, belongs to the government and is operated by the ministry of education

Sports :: How to Make Money Betting on Horse Racing

May 29, 2016 by Jonathan Giles | No Comments | Filed in Uncategorized

By handicapping the horses and race conditions and studying the various mathematical models, you may make money betting on horse racing.

Finally, use online resources, such as TwinSpires, to make bets online and receive free tips on handicapping

In addition, I suggest that you review all race results on a regular basis by studying copies of the “Daily Racing Form.” This newspaper can be instrumental in teaching you how to handicap properly and win more money. In addition, track the performance of each horse and knowing whether the performance of the horse is improving with maturity or declining with age. You will find the “Daily Racing Form” available at most newsstands, at horse racing venues and by direct-mail subscription as well as online downloads.

Make money betting on horse racing by learning how to handicap the horses properly by reading the articles on this site. I spend my time knowing the Southern California race tracks. I use “How to ‘Place Bet’ on Favorites for a Living” by Mohammed Ali. In addition, I suggest that you concentrate on only one or two race tracks every horse betting season. You will also need to know how each horse performs in a variety of weather and track conditions and whether there is a synergy between the horse and a particular jockey. You might also read online blogs about horse racing in order to make money by betting on horse racing. In addition, many of these blogs feature online-discussion forums on which you can swap information about effective betting methods and systems.

While there is no guarantee that anyone will win consistently by betting on horse races, recent developments in computer software and handicapping methods have reduced the amount of financial risk. In addition, I suggest using a system that has been proven. You will find that most horse racing blogs are moderated and maintained by experts who have developed reliable handicapping systems and are more than willing to share secrets with subscribers. I do not use a computer software to make money on betting on horse racing

Astrologys Aries Lucky Days; What Time Of Month To Gamble

May 29, 2016 by Jonathan Giles | No Comments | Filed in Uncategorized

The celestial number of Aries is (7), and Mars, the ruling planet of Aries has a numerical value of (6). You can determine this hour by starting at sunrise, and then counting forward to your lucky hours. Deutsch – It’s a universal law that says, what you sow, so shall you reap. As an Aries, you probably know your basic Horoscope, but did you know that there are particular days and hours of the Month which are especially lucky for you? Here are some times when you will be especially lucky.

===> Lucky Moon Days. A signal to change, to slow down, to breathe more deeply and to go within.Tags: spirituality, happiness, happy, success, personal developmentWhy Is It Important For A Doctor To Opt For Spiritual Retreat In Bali? By: Ashis Kumar – Here in this article you will find some points that describe why doctors opt for spiritual retreat in Bali.Tags: retreat bali, bali retreat, retreat, meditation, yogaGet Over Yourself, Connecting Is Key To Communicate Your Dream, So Get Over Yourself! By: Sandy Z – Everyone communicates but few connect. A teacher educates a student and makes him or her socially capabl … Deutsch – Thinking outside the box actually requires you to suspend the thought process long enough for the answers to come into your mind. In other words, what goes around, comes around. Finally, if you were born in the range of April 14th thru April 19th, you will be luckier during the Moon’s fourth quarter.

For Publishers:

===>Lucky Partners

People born in the date range of March 21st through April 19th have the Astrology sun sign of Ares the Ram. Connecting with people is an art. For people born under Aries, the following calculations hold.

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Sunday: You are luckier during the 7th, 14th, and 21st hours after sunrise.

By:

Keith Abbott

Wednesday: You are luckier during the 5th, 12th, and 19th hour after sunrise.

Lessons In Surrender – Becoming More Spiritual By: Heidi Alexandra Pollard – It began with a feeling, then a sign, a nudge and then a book. Do you have a dream or vision that you want to communicate to the world. Deutsch – From the time we are born, we are always on our way to becoming something. It is difficult to survive without a teacher. Connection comes from the heart. Uma regio muito privilegiada quanto paisagem e a pureza do ar.Tags: espiritualidade, sucesso e prosperidadeKaal Sarp Dosh Yog And Its Effects By: Vijay Bharti – Kaal Sarp Dosh is one of terrific condition in ones kundli so it require proper remedy and astrological consultation by Vedic Astrologers

Tags: kaal sarp yog puja, kaal sarp dosh puja, kaal sarp doshWhat Goes Around, Comes Around By: Connie H. If your birthday falls in the range of April 6th thru April 13th, you will be luckier during the days of the Full moon. Tags: experienced teacher in BrisbaneThe Most Unexpected Website I Came Across Was That Of The Grace Church! By: onlinejazz – Internet always throws up some surprise or the other for us anyways! The more we explore, the more we come across things! And most interestingly, we end up finding out websites that we never thought that existed.Tags: Christ Church videos, video sermons online, video sermonThinking Outside The Box By: Connie H. Learn to connect and the world is yours.Tags: Get over yourself, getting over yourself, get over myselfLuz Da Serra – Encontre O Seu Caminho De Luz By: Jill Cohen – O nome Luz da Serra nasceu de uma imensa admirao que os seus fundadores, Bruno J.Gimenes e Patrcia Cndido, sempre tiverem ao ver o pr do sol na serr gacha. In addition, you should look for the number (4) to appear in your winning numbers. When we look back, we can measure our progress by the way our thoughts and actions have defined our life.Tags: becoming, spiritual, near-death, God, mortality

Friday: You are luckier during the 6th, 13th, and 20th hours after sunrise.

Thursday: You are luckier during the 2nd, 9th, 16th, and 23rd hours after sunrise.

For Everyone:

===>Numerology Days

Article Published On:

http://www.articlesnatch.com – Spirituality

If you were birthday falls in the range of March 21st thru March 28th, you will be luckier during the days of the New Moon. Using fadic addition from Numerology gives us the sum of (13) which reduces to (4). If it falls in the range of March 29th thru April 5th, you will be luckier during the days of the second quarter of the Moon. Most people are so busy thinking that they don’t allow their minds to be quiet enough to receive the answers.Tags: outside the box, meditation, thinking, consciousness, astralWe’re On The Way To Becoming By: Connie H. You must first connect.

About the Author:

Keith Abbott is the developer and owner of ‘Numerology 4 You’ where you can order your own Numerology reading, including your complete Lucky Days calendar. Therefore, any day of the month who’s digits reduce to (4) is a lucky day for people born under Aries. This number varies by the day of the week. If you are going to gamble on the lottery during the month; you should buy your ticket on one of the following days: the 4th, 13th, 22nd, or 31st. Visit him on the web today at http://www.numerology4you.com

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Tuesday: You are luckier during the 1st, 8th, 15th, and 22nd hour after sunrise.

Monday: You are luckier during the 4th, 11, and 18th hours after sunrise.

If you are born under Aries, and are playing a game of chance with a partner, you will be luckiest when that partner is born under one of the following signs: Aquarius, Gemini, Leo, Sagittarius, or Libra.

Saturday: You are luckier during the 3rd, 10th, 17th, and 24th hour after sunrise.

===>Lucky Hours

Many sources hold that you are luckier during the day when your ruling planet is governing. The teacher teaches us how to survive on this earth by fighting with all the barriers of life. Don’t play the victim when you are subjected to the same type of treatment you have meted out to others.Tags: universal law, victims, sow, reap, abusive behaviorA Teacher Helps Us To Nourish Our Career And Future By: savemypc – A teacher has a lot of importance in our life from the time we are born

How To Master Sports Betting

May 29, 2016 by Jonathan Giles | No Comments | Filed in Uncategorized

If you are going to do it you need to do it properly and master it, it means you are completely organized and focused. Thus when you are doing well, you will still be focused and when you aren’t doing so well you won’t be thinking that it’s the end of the world. Also look into how sides perform the week after doing certain travel. You will be better off for doing so in the long run.. It’s all about accumulating winnings. Upsets are always going to happen but see when it makes the most sense when to go for that and when not to. It doesn’t matter if it is pretty or not.

Sports betting is an easy way to make a tough living. In the case of team sports, injuries are important. It could provide great insight as to predicting what will occur.

Speaking of the long run, this is what you should be focused on. So do yourself a favor and swear off them. The weather conditions also make a difference as they do in horse racing. Business is business and you need to be concentrating on who is going to win regardless of who likes and who doesn’t like which team.

Because of this point, it is probably better if you steer clear from any matches involving the teams that you like. What is the point of drowning yourself in statistics and research for what you could just as easily decided with a flip of the coin? So you need to sift through it all and just take the morsels here and there which are really important and make a difference. On the flip side, you shouldn’t bet against a team because someone you don’t like roots for that team. You shouldn’t favor a team because they are the team your best friend supports. This means that when you place your bets you need to be thinking clearly and concisely. You don’t want to lose money just because you weren’t on top of your game.

The most important thing is that you need to take emotion out of the equation. Hopefully this kind of thinking will keep you grounded. You want to know who trained and who didn’t. Travel is a factor such as when East Coast sides travel to the West Coast and vice versa. So if you suffer a bad break along the way, just remember it goes with the territory. You can’t let the highs and lows affect you too much.

Information and doing your homework is important, but you don’t want to full into the trap of information overload. Over time, you will learn what it should be that you should be paying attention to.

Look for value bets. It is only going to place you in a difficult position and as much as you might think it won’t be, your decision making ability is going to be compromised. Anything less than this and it is going to be a disaster. For instance, if you are pretty certain that a side is going to win and they are getting good odds for this than take this

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Betting With The Law Of Attraction

May 29, 2016 by Jonathan Giles | No Comments | Filed in Uncategorized

“they can’t predict the outcome!”.

When you remove the logical mind and really listen to what you’re feeling, you will always have access to the most accurate answer, since your feelings are an indication of what you’re moving towards. If they feel good, good things are coming. Your logical mind can only make decisions upon what it already knows. My logical mind started to kick in… This helps me greatly in my decision making. Second half started and the opposing team took the lead and made it 2-1. If they feel bad, bad things are coming.

“How do I feel about this game?”

It was an uncomfortable game and didn’t bring me any joy. It felt horrible and was definitely unwanted. I knew before the game started that it wouldn’t.

Your emotions are your best method of making accurate decisions. So, I knew straight away that my team was going to lose or draw.

By asking yourself the question “how will I feel about this?”, you will always get a perfectly aligned response from your emotional guidance system. Before the game begins I will ask myself…

Your emotions are always a perfect reflection of what’s coming.

Simple.

If I get a distinct feeling of “positiveness” then the game will be a success and will win.

If I feel pretty bad about the game then it will either be a draw or a loss.

If I feel nothing and am completely neutral, then I don’t make a decision.

If you start removing your attention from the logical mind and stop using your mind to make the decisions, then by relying on your emotions, you will very quickly begin to see that your emotions are always a perfect match to what you’re attracting.

In the opening 10 minutes, we scored a goal and were 1-0 up. I’ve started practicing using my emotions to determine how the game will end up, before the game has even kicked off.

By half-time it was 1-1. You may know it with a different name (gut instincts for example), but simply put the emotions that you feel, are always a perfect match to what you are currently attracting.

How does all of this fit in with betting on events?

Is it possible to successfully place a bet and win it using the Law of Attraction? I’ve proved it possible.

Because I watch my team play, I am emotionally attached to the game.

If you feel good, you’re attracting good things into your life.

If you feel bad, or neutral, then you’re attracting unwanted things into your life.

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I’m an avid football (soccer) fan and I always enjoy watching my team play on television. I’m not big on betting, but it is entirely possible to bet using your feelings as a judgment call.

As I was practicing this in a recent match I was watching, I noticed a horrible feeling within me. “your emotions are a load of rubbish!” … The end result was a draw, 2-2.

Within each and every one of us is something called an Emotional Guidance System. All of your thoughts are created from past experiences and so your logical mind is working within your limited belief system.

Will Trump Play his Cards Right?

May 29, 2016 by Jonathan Giles | No Comments | Filed in Uncategorized

Read more

.

Love him or loathe him, ‘the Donald’ is the man of the moment. Donald J. His bluff, swagger, and unrestrained self-belief have taken him to the top of the political greasy pole. Trump is one… He defines himself as the ‘archetypal businessman’: a rags to riches American dream made real

AIDS Patient Zero – InfoBarrel

May 29, 2016 by Jonathan Giles | No Comments | Filed in Uncategorized

Louis City Hospital, then transferred to Barnes Hospital (now Barnes-Jewish Hospital) in St. Louis, Missouri.  His mother’s name was Constance Rayford, and he had a brother named George.  Rayford was described as slender.  His retardation left him relatively uncommunicative from shyness. 

Of a most enlightening nature was Rayford’s adamant refusal of any rectal exams.  It seemed that he may have been exposed to homosexual activity (assuming the submissive role in anal intercourse).  One of his attending physicians believed that he had been a victim of sexual abuse (a very likely scenario considering Rayford’s socio-economic background).  He could also have been “pimped out” against his will by someone who procured males to engage with him.  To date, this aspect of his life is unclear.

AIDS now had a face.

Current scientific research is clear: sometime in the 1930s, a simian form of immunodeficiency virus mutated sufficiently and made the leap across species to become a contagious disease of people. 

Gaëtan Dugas was a French-Canadian born February 20, 1953.  His life was on a collision course with history.  In 1972, Dugas first became sexually active.  [He would later claim he had over 2,500 sexual partners in his lifetime, whether all male is unknown.  He may have been bisexual.] 

He was admitted with multiple, and strange, symptoms (given his tender age). Louis, Missouri) was the earliest confirmed victim of AIDS in North America.

Diverting conversations occurred between Rayford and his primary care givers when questioned about his sexual activities.  His doctors had not considered homosexuality initially, and all conversations, such as they were, seemed to be taken as referring to female sexual contacts.

Tracing backward from Haiti (the source of the US strain in 1966) put the disease firmly in Central Africa. .  

He wrote myriad articles on the subject and penned a stage play, “A Normal Heart”, that did well.  In May 2014, this stage play was brought to the small screen.  It was presented as a movie on HBO starring Jim Parsons (of “Big Bang Theory” TV fame).  The story documented the earliest days of the AIDS epidemic in America told from the perspective of the New York City/Fire Island cohort.  It is engaging: it is what TV can do (but usually fails to do except in rare cases like this one).

There is an apocryphal story that Patient Zero was really Patient “O” (as in the 15th letter of the English alphabet, first letter of the word “Omega” for the last letter of the Greek alphabet, ?).  Furthermore, it was alleged that a journalist misinterpreted the “O” (for “?”), and instead wrote up his report, referring to the AIDS’ source as “Patient 0″ ["zero"] instead.

In America, the results of further research led to the conclusion that Gaëtan Dugas had not been the true “Patient Zero” after all.

Meanwhile, as a symbolic sign of the coming Armageddon, Studio 54 was forced to close its doors for liquor license violations and tax evasion; entrepreneurs Steve Rubell and his business partner were sentenced to short terms of imprisonment.  [Rubell later died of AIDS.]

And the real Patient Zero – the HIV-Adam or HIV-Eve – lived and most likely died there, somewhere in the Congo, unknown and unrecognized for the catastrophic role he or she would play in human history. 

Dr. Memory Elvin-Lewis, thank you so much for not only your contributions to science but to my humble efforts at disseminating it for general readership.  I truly appreciate it.

Homophobia was so great by the late 1950s almost no airlines in the United States would hire men as flight attendants – even Eastern and Pan Am stopped hiring stewards.  Stewardesses, however, were very desirable.  They were marketed as young, beautiful, and sexually available–this was hardly an acceptable career choice for any he-man.  In the same way that the sexual orientation of male nurses was suspect, only “pansies” wanted to be stewards.

Running Dugas to ground, however, was pointless.  At the time, there were no criminal laws penalizing the willful spread of a known fatal disease (since then, law changes allow charges of attempted and pre-meditated murder to be brought in many states against anyone who is HIV-positive purposefully engaging in unprotected sexual intercourse with an unwitting partner).

Occasionally, medical mysteries initially thought solved are found later to have very different truths at their cores.

The term “velvet rope” came into existence then – a red velvet rope (as one might see in a museum keeping patrons at a safe distance from a particularly priceless exhibit) became the literal and symbolic barrier between the plebes on the street and the hipsters within.  Each night crowds gathered outside Studio 54′s doors; admission was granted whimsically by a group of door men and many times by Steve Rubell himself. 

The End of Days was seemingly at hand.

Without a precise diagnosis, Rayford’s cause of death was attributed to the catch-all vagary “loss of vitality”.  Intractable fluid imbalance and lung disease were listed as contributors.  An autopsy revealed a surprise – his body carried a very rare cancer called Kaposi’s sarcoma internally (though he had but one external lesion on his right thigh).  [Today, this cancer and its lesions are bellwethers of AIDS.] 

From a front-line perspective

As further incentive to not hire men as flight attendants, the death of a gay steward in 1954 became a scandal sufficiently great to lead to a rash of “fag bashings” (both gay men and lesbians were targeted) in Miami, Florida.  It was one of the nation’s worst anti-gay outbreaks in history. 

Years later, once medical science, and particularly genetics testing, had reached a greater level of technological advance, a revision of the “Patient Zero” findings of 1984 seemed necessary.  What was learned by later research was both fascinating and horrific simultaneously.  It turned out, HIV had not only been in the world for over a century, but it had been in the United States as early as 1966. 

Air Canada

This virus, after much international wrangling for recognition of discovery (with a particularly aggressive and bombastic US virologist lobbying for a claim that he had found it first–he did not) was later named Human Immunodeficiency Virus or HIV. 

Molecular research shows the AIDS epidemic of the 1980s stemmed from a viral strain that had entered the US via Haiti about 1966.  Other strains have been isolated as well.  As in cases like Robert Rayford’s, the disease died with him (though he probably infected others, those people likely did not have access to the sheer number of sexual partners that, for example, Gaëtan Dugas had, and died before spreading it much). 

He started out as a hairdresser.  Wanting to travel, this French-speaking Canadian learned that flight attendants for Air Canada had to be bi-lingual.  He moved to Vancouver and learned English to qualify for the job.  He found work as a flight attendant on Air Canada.  This career choice allowed him the freedom to move around the world, visiting exotic locales, and meeting many strange men for anonymous sexual encounters.  In 1977, he was legally married in Los Angeles, California, in an illegal attempt to gain United States citizenship.

But, it doesn’t end there. 

***

He had a chlamydia infection (a bacterial venereal disease), clearly indicating he was sexually active.  His doctors also uncovered evidence of the herpes simplex virus and the virus responsible for Epstein-Barr.  Robert Rayford was not terribly forthcoming with his doctors, partly due to his retardation leaving him mostly uncommunicative, but also because he was embarrassed by something.

A year earlier, a Portuguese man known only as Senhor José died under mysterious circumstances.  He was treated at the London Hospital for Tropical Diseases to no effect.  In later years, examination of preserved tissues verified he died of AIDS; the causative virus, HIV-2 was present, making him the first known confirmed victim.  Genetic research on the virus indicated he probably contracted the disease in 1966 in Guinea-Bissau (on the northwest coast of Africa).  Three gay men in California and six Haitian immigrants to the United States were later confirmed as AIDS victims from that same year.

The direct lineage of HIV-1 was traced to two groups of mutations that formed in the primates that carried the simian version.  One of the groups was dated to between 1847 and 1907; another subgroup dated to between 1606 and 1871.  HIV-2 made the leap most likely between the date range of 1856 and 1922.  Thus, it can be seen some prototypical version of the AIDS virus can be dated to the early 17th century.

In the end one can see there is no modern-day “Patient Zero”.

Noe’s condition stabilized, but then flared up again in 1975 (coincidentally the same year a strange disorder called “slim disease” was reported in Africa for the first time, the beginnings of epidemic AIDS).  In addition to the respiratory condition and joint pains he developed motor skill problems and dementia before he died. 

The Road to Zero

Gaëtan Dugas fit right in with the gay community of the bath houses.  He was blond, voluble, and open.  Sex for him was a series of anonymous engagements, many times conducted hastily in bathroom stalls.  He took on whatever he felt like.  As well as many other men, he was developing what would become known as “The Clone Look”: close-cropped hair, largish but well-groomed mustache, muscle shirts, short shorts.  [The quintessential version of "The Clone Look" would be Freddie Mercury (rock band Queen's lead vocalist who died of AIDS) after about 1981.] 

The commercial airlines recognized the goldmine presented by hiring female “stewardesses”.  Certainly, they were paid less.  There was also marketability in women that men did not have – women could be hawked by an airline as possible sex partners for the discriminating male traveler choosing its service over another.

“I’m Candy – Fly Me!”

In 1976, a Norwegian sailor, designated with the alias “Arvid Noe”, died; his wife and nine-year-old daughter died the next year of the same wasting disease.  In 1961, the 15-year-old Noe had sailed on his first voyage to Africa.  He worked a merchant vessel that plied along Africa’s west coast from mid-1961 to mid-1962; during this voyage he was treated for gonorrhea.  He sailed again to Africa in 1964, with a port of call in Kenya in eastern Africa.  In 1966, Noe started suffering from chronic joint pain and recurrent lung infections.  By 1968, he could no longer pass a physical to sail, so he worked as a long-haul truck driver. 

By the 1950s, this homophobia was rampant, and in the conservative times of Eisenhower and McCarthyism, men were slowly pushed out of the steward jobs.

A strange disease lurked among the gay denizens and creepers of the bath houses, though.  Men began dying of pneumonia and other respiratory illnesses, but only after drastically losing weight and developing horrific skin lesions on their faces, necks, backs, and chests.  This disease became known in the gay community as “gay cancer”.  It was particularly volatile, and it progressed rapidly.  Dugas caught it early, possibly with his first encounter in the New York gay bathhouse on Halloween 1980.

Gateway to the West

Concern for dying gay men was not paramount on America’s mind.  As more cases of the mysterious killer emerged, the name was changed from “gay cancer” to “gay-related immune deficiency” (GRID).  This, at least, was an open recognition that whatever was causing the disease was compromising a body’s immune system.  It didn’t explain, however, the rather esoteric choice of gay men (and soon discovered, IV drug users) by an unintelligent, non-sentient pathogen as victims.  It wasn’t until the first heterosexual cases of “gay cancer” emerged that the disease was examined more closely.

Ground Zero

The airline industry developed glamour.  The titillation of a sexy stewardess in uniform, pandering to any business traveler’s ego, was priceless.  These were women without boundaries, women who went anywhere, anytime.  Therefore, they must be promiscuous.  The unspoken possibility of sex with a globe-trotting gal was also alluring.  Married women were aggressively discouraged from working as stewardesses.  The single women, all within a certain preferred range of body type, height, and attractiveness, were wanton women (in the minds of the average male of the day).  Although morbid obesity was not the problem in the 1940s it is today, there were no “big girls” on board.

The disease it spawned was rechristened, in light of its indiscriminate virology, to Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome or AIDS.  That same year that 248 cases of the disease were reported, local health departments in conjunction with the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) in Atlanta began investigating.

Of the 248 cases known before the detection of the virus, interviewing led to the shocking revelation that at least 40 AIDS victims had one thing in common: all had either had sex with a certain male, blond, gregarious Air Canada flight attendant, or they had sex with someone who did.  This networking connection was made in 1984, and it was critical – it meant medical and public health officials investigating the source of AIDS might have finally gotten the breakthrough they needed. 

Author’s note

Larry Kramer was actively and aggressively involved with what was then known as “gay cancer” in the early 1980s when the disease first made its poisonous presence visibly known in the United States as “gay cancer”. 

Gay men realized the danger.  Many made the intuitive leap early that perhaps certain activities, such as anal intercourse, might be transmitting the causative agent.  Others flatly refused to believe that their lifestyles might be endangering the health of themselves and of others.  They felt it was a perceived backlash against gay men.  Higher-profile gay men (many closeted during their lifetimes) and activists within the gay community began dying as well as underground sub-culture members (the “Crisco, leather, and fisting” set).

Gay and straight partiers alike finally found their Valhalla, however, in New York City in a crummy little club in the 1970s called Studio 54.  This rat hole was converted into a hot spot known all over the world.  Celebrities fell all over themselves to get in and be seen there.  Its allure was its faux air of exclusivity.  No club before or since carried the cachet of Studio 54.  Co-founded and owned by a cabaret-style, (almost a caricature) flamboyantly gay man, Steve Rubell, and a straight-laced heterosexual lawyer, this kitschy club defined hipsters in the Seventies. 

Grethe Rask was a Danish surgeon who had traveled to Zaire in 1972 to lend medical aid for the sick there.  She returned to Denmark in 1976 and became relentlessly ill.  Her symptoms confounded her colleagues.  She died in December 1977.  Several years later in 1984, it was confirmed through testing she was HIV-positive.  During her time in Zaire, it was known she was directly exposed to blood – it is believed this was the source of her infection.

This makes little sense. 

Gaëtan Dugas, the narcissistic and embittered flight attendant, alternately feeling morose and spiteful about his condition, was given the code name “Patient Zero”, the source of the AIDS epidemic in North America. 

Dugas may have personally, and directly, been responsible for dozens of AIDS cases (and no telling how many more indirectly), but he did not bring AIDS to the US, nor was he the first confirmed AIDS victim.  As noted, several California men and some Haitian immigrants were found later to have succumbed to the disease before Dugas.

On October 31, 1980 – ominously enough, Halloween night – the French-Canadian gay male steward Gaëtan Dugas visited a gay bathhouse for the first time on a layover in New York City.

Gaëtan Dugas died in Quebec City, Quebec, Canada, on March 30, 1984, at the age of 31.  His cause of death was kidney-failure brought on by his weakened condition from an onslaught of infections and ailments from AIDS.

Update note:Dr.

The criteria for entry were pure sadism: one night only women might be allowed in; other times, a sloppily dressed man might be sent away while another, looking exactly like that man but “famous”, would be let in.  Gay-themed parties were held there often, and casual sex in the bathrooms and the “exclusive” privacy lounge was common among attendees.

By April of 1982, 248 cases of the disease were reported nationwide with many others too afraid or indifferent to see a doctor.  A virus was isolated in 1983 by French scientists (as Europeans were also recognizing and treating patients with “gay cancer”, many of whom were decidedly not gay). 

Before Robert Rayford in the US, there was a possible case found in a dead Jamaican native named Ardouin Antonio.  He came to the US in 1927.  He was working as a shipping clerk for a clothier when he died at age 49 on June 28, 1959, in Manhattan.  He had developed a very rare kind of pneumonia, seemingly out of the blue.  Decades later the doctor who had performed Antonio’s autopsy was asked to re-evaluate the case.  Did he think Antonio possibly died of AIDS?  “You bet . It was so unusual at the time . 1952-1953).. . Memory Elvin-Lewis was kind enough to respond to this piece in person.

Omega Man

False Positive

Instead, about the only thing that can be said of HIV is that its “Ground Zero” location was almost certainly Central Africa.  

Because of the baffling nature of his case, doctors preserved several tissue and blood samples for later evaluation.  In 1987, eighteen years after his death, molecular biologists at New Orleans’ Tulane University tested specimens of Rayford’s preserved blood and tissues.  Their findings were stunning: a virus “closely related or identical to” HIV-1 was detected.  Further confirmation testing in 1989  proved Robert Rayford (African-American teenage male of St. It existed as “slim disease”; the condition was universally ignored though many Africans died after mysteriously wasting away.  In 1959, about the time the Manhattan Jamaican shipping clerk died of his rare pneumonia, a blood sample from a Congolese man was taken and preserved.  Years later, this proved to be HIV-infected.  This Congolese man’s fate is unknown (whether he developed full-blown AIDS and died from it or not).  Similarly, a preserved lymph-node biopsy specimen taken from a Congolese woman in 1960 later proved to be HIV-positive.

First denying he was sick, he later willfully and maliciously spread the disease to unsuspecting partners.  After having casual sex in a darkened room once, a male interviewee later reported he had turned on a light in the room where Dugas lay naked on a bed.  This man spotted the lesions (Kaposi’s sarcoma) that were the classic earmarks of “gay cancer” on Dugas’ chest.  When he remarked upon it, Dugas replied sardonically, “It’s gay cancer.  Maybe you’ll get it.”

Rayford lived in a brownstone in a poor neighborhood in St.   The swelling in his legs was bothersome, his genitals and legs were covered in scrofulous skin, and his testicles were severely swollen.  He was also emaciated (having lost much weight suddenly), and even though he was an African-American male he was considered “pale”.  He also had shortness of breath.  His symptoms led his caregivers at Barnes Hospital to conclude that one of his problems was lymphedema (a swelling caused by lymphatic problems).  This was only a tiny part of his health issues, however.

Dugas remained unrepentant.  He originally denied that whatever disease it was he had could be transmitted sexually.  His own words on the subject: “Of course I’m going to have sex.  Nobody’s proven to me that you can spread cancer.”  His depraved indifference to his sexual partners’ well-being was summarized with “It’s their duty to protect themselves.  They know what’s going on out there.  They’ve heard about this disease.”  The last element of his bitterness was voiced by his wish to take others with him: “I’ve got gay cancer.  I’m going to die and so are you.” 

The hedonism of the 1970s raged unchecked, and by the middle of the decade “gay” culture became pop culture.  Gay male partiers in the mid 1970s found an outlet on New York’s Fire Island.  Gay men rented time-share space in houses on the island and partied their summers away “in season”. 

The Greek letter “?” always refers to the end of an event or series, not its beginning.  Dugas was “Patient Zero”, not “Patient ?” – if the intent was to use such a Greek designation, he would have been named “Patient Alpha” (“?” or “?”)  for “the beginning”.  It is known that Dugas from the earliest investigations, based on diagrams the CDC (and others) created interlinking sexual contacts among those diagnosed with or dead from the mystery disease, was referred to from the start as Patient Zero (not Omega or “O”).

Mr. . Louis. 

Certainly it was not Gaëtan Dugas (though, like Typhoid Mary over half a century before him, many deaths could be placed squarely on his doorstep). 

The music was disco, the dance beat adapted from gay men and their party scene.  The mock S&M dance moves, the sweaty bodies, the throb of the music, the drugs consumed, and the fact that not just anyone could get in heightened its allure.

Certainly, the African-American teenager Robert Rayford (who had never been outside the city of his birth) was not Patient Zero, either – somebody had to give it to him in the first place.

This good person also kindly corrected some of the misinformation about Rayford via a personal e-mail and was also kind enough to forward professional papers on the subject.  One such paper, in Lymphology from 1973, gives, perhaps, the best clinical synopsis of the case.  Another article, entitled Documentation of an AIDS Virus Infection in the United States in 1968 (by the same doctor and others), is also a “must read” for anyone interested in the earlier origins of AIDS in America. 

Dating America’s exposure to AIDS is irrelevant: AIDS is a global problem.  And continuing research has led to many more interesting facts about the spread of HIV.

He led doctors to believe any of his sexual activities were strictly heterosexual, even claiming at one point to having a girlfriend (who failed to surface at the time).  [This female was found some time later and was found to be in perfect health, relative to HIV and AIDS, from which one can only surmise she and Rayford had no intimate sexual intercourse or such activities were rare enough she was not exposed to critical levels by whatever ailed him.]

This doctor handled, and talked with (though reported as largely uncommunicative), Robert Rayford personally for a period during Rayford’s confinement, and also attended Rayford’s autopsy, confirming the KS diagnosis and noting the preservation of tissue samples that later were shown to carry the variant of the HIV-1 virus.

The dubious distinction of being America’s “Patient Zero” – the first documented and verifiable case of AIDS in the country – belongs not to Dugas but to a mildly mentally retarded black teenager named Robert Rayford (born ca. Doctors, helpless to find the cause of death for the Noe family, preserved some tissue samples.  In 1988, further testing showed Noe, his wife, and his daughter had all been HIV-positive

As early as his 13th year or sooner, he was sexually active.  Beginning in 1966, he started having some physical problems that seemed chronic.  His legs swelled, and he developed sores on his genitals and body. 

The music scene was fueled by this gay celebration, none more blatantly than by a vocal group of disco hustlers calling themselves “The Village People”.  They dressed in favorite and stereotypical gay icon costumes – a policeman, a construction worker, a cowboy, a gay biker, and a Native American.  They were hugely successful for a short time with big sellers “In the Navy” and “YMCA”.  More subtly, Donna Summer performed her brand of dance music that was embraced by the gay community as was she.

Finally, in 1968, the boy was admitted to St. Somewhere, there was a Patient Zero, the epidemiological well-spring from which this plague spewed forth.

AIDS in the United States was isolated in pockets of contagion until the promiscuity (homosexual or otherwise) of the 1970s gave the disease a clear path of propagation in humans.  IV drug use, on the rise in the 1970s and early 1980s, also provided another avenue of blood-exchange necessary for the virus to thrive. 

Anal scarring also indicated repeated sexual penetration.

For one gay man, however, being a steward was all he’d needed to satisfy both his wanderlust and his physical lust. 

Dugas, meanwhile, knew he was sick.  He didn’t know exactly what was wrong, but he had developed the skin lesions, associated with “gay cancer”.  But one can’t spread cancer, of course, because cancer isn’t contagious.  He indiscriminately continued having sex with men as his whims overtook him.  His “advantage” was his mobility – as a flight attendant, he might be in any part of the US, Canada, or the world on a moment’s notice.  His bitterness about having gay cancer crossed over into his lackadaisical attitude about possibly harming others.

The teen seemed stabilized by late 1968 (when he was around 15 years old).  He had been transferred to Deaconess Hospital by then, and in March 1969, however, all of his symptoms reappeared and rapidly worsened.  His breathing labored; his white blood cell count (as part of routine blood work) was noted to have dropped dramatically.  The only thing concurred at the time was that Rayford’s immune system had been somehow compromised.  He developed a fever and died either in the late hours of May 15, 1969, or the early hours of May 16 (sources differ).  His primary physician recalled, “Eventually his entire body constituted almost one wave of hard lumps and watery swellings.”

In 1979, before Dugas was infected, a bisexual German concert violinist, Herbert Heinrich, died.  In 1989, after testing of medical samples from his body, it was learned he was HIV-positive. 

His first months in the hospital were spent with his doctors cutting back on his water and salt intake, and they wrapped and raised his legs, all to cut down on his tissue’s swelling.  Despite this, the inflammation moved up his body and into his lungs.  Antibiotics were tried in varying dosages, but Rayford’s condition continued to deteriorate. 

Less Than Zero

There is an interesting correlation between homosexuality and the airline industry.  At least, there is a publicly perceived correlation as it pertains to airline flight attendants.

The very first air flight attendants (in the 1920s) were men.  These positions were desirable; the men who did these jobs executed their duties more like up-scale, futuristic train porters and ship stewards than as menials.  As with many professions in that era (especially in service jobs such as telephone operators, bank tellers, et al) the sky porters known as “stewards” were exclusively male.  World War I saw the shift from male to female telephone operators and bank tellers; with a dearth of male workers during World War II, employers turned to the fairer sex to fill their employment needs in the airline industry, too. 

Good investigative work requires dogged determination.  Running an enigma to ground can take years. 

Almost any medical professional worth his or her license, whenever a patient dies of a strange ailment, takes the precaution of preserving tissue and blood samples for future research.  It is extremely fortunate that some doctors going all the way back to the late 1950s had been so far-sighted.  Working backward and re-examining suspicious or otherwise unresolved deaths from contagion globally proved enriching in piecing together the history of AIDS. 

The discrimination in the labor market meant the United States Supreme Court had to step in and force airlines to hire male flight attendants.  This happened in 1971 after nearly 20 years of female-dominated service.  Even then, the Court’s decision forcing US airlines to hire men was greeted with derision in the press.  It also raised homophobic fears of placing men in such a servile and sexualized role. many cases of AIDS have been autopsied that we didn’t even know had AIDS.”

Thus, by the late 1940s male flight attendants were not only undesirable, they were suspect as well.  Occupying a job with women that devoted itself to customer service, good manners, and fine grooming, the stewards garnered suspicions of being “queer”.

One such mystery concerned the AIDS epidemic in America.  As long as the killer remained comfortably within the gay community not much was done to investigate.  As soon as AIDS found its way into the heterosexual population, though, suddenly America’s interest in ferreting out the cause was paramount.  Panic stricken virologists and other epidemiologists worked feverishly to isolate the source of this sexually transmitted disease first endemic among homosexual men. 

AIDS is what defined the decade of the 1980s, a decade that lived in fear beneath the penumbra of a certain and tortuous death from a highly communicable pathogen. Memory Elvin Lewis

Dr. Kramer was a writer in New York and a part of the gay culture.  He, however, decided that merely watching his friends die quietly wasn’t enough. 

In conjunction with Studio 54, other bars for gay men to frequent thrived.  Another meeting place was the bath houses still found in many larger cities.  Once serving the utilitarian function for neighborhood residents to bathe (considering most homes up until the late 1920s did not have indoor plumbing) these quaint reminders of The Good Old Days were social gathering places for gay men.  They were prevalent in New York City and in San Francisco.  [Bette Midler, a great favorite among gay men, got her start singing in gay bath houses; her piano player in those days was songwriter/musician Barry Manilow).

In his wake, one of the unfortunate legacies he left was a renewed homophobia relative to male flight attendants.  They became a lightning rod for America’s fear and anger over AIDS and its links with homosexuality.  “Patient Zero”, Gaëtan Dugas, was reviled; in death he was even accused of bringing HIV to North America and spreading it around the country.

Both his wife and daughter developed an illness that mimicked his symptoms, and they died in 1977.